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Thread: EurAnalysis

  1. #1





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    Welcome to

    Yes I know it seems like urinalysis but in ways the purpose of this thread is to do more or less the Exact Same thing. The sole difference is that instead of urine, we are assessing the Euro from its major counterparts.

    I encourage all participants to contribute what they know about the EUR/USD as well as any other Euro related currency pairs... and since everything is correlated nowadays, that pretty much includes all currency pairs, commodities and equity indices But the most important focus must be Euro crosses.

    Before I begin with submitting my first post, I wish to lay down the ground rules of the thread. I have a few rules but they will be strictly enforced.

    1. During busy market hours, please keep the talks strictly on issues directly related to trading the Euro and another instrument which influences (or is affected by) the Euro. This can be technical analysis of charts and indiors, Fundamental analysis of political and economic factors which directly or indirectly affect the Euro and related instruments, or any other info you wish to exchange with others which you feel will be of help in discovering general market sentiment or supplying trade ideas. Throughout off-market hours or periods, you are free to take part in any discussion which you feel that the thread participants would find of interest including humor and trivia. Just keep it clean please
    2. If represent it as fact and you are going to make a statement, please back it up with definitive references. This could be a chart for a trade call or technical analysis, or even a link to a respectable news source or article for fundamental analysis.
    3. Vulgarity, personal attacks, mocking, condescending opinions, lecturing, name calling or bullying of any sort for any reason will not be tolerated here. Generally the only acceptable posts are the ones which offer value and I could ascertain whether any such articles and that criteria meet with in my sole discretion. Clearly discussion is welcome and encouraged.
    4. This thread isn't a sign service or even a trading college. Opinions and information are given publicly by the participants to get many motives. Should you notice that other posters are investing in a manner that does not match your own trading style, or you don't agree with the information they post, it isn't your place to criticize or attempt to re-edue them unless they've specifically asked you to do so. Everyone has a different style. It is fine to make ideas to the audience, however it isn't appropriate to method or poster in a condescending way. Since there are trading methods there are as language barriers and many personalities within this thread. As such you can't how your communiion may be translated. Therefore, when posting anything about trading methods state you believe others and how you do it should.
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    Any poster that violates any of the above mentioned rules, or dismisses any directions given by the thread starter moderator (that's me), may be instantly blocked without notice. It means you have gone too far, so it is time for you, if I've found reason to trouble you a fair warning. In extreme circumstances, I may even recommend to theforexintuitiveadminiors your account be suspended or permanently banned... Yes, I have that power and I will use it in my discretion
    quantity of posters currently obstructed by me for rule violations: 18
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    That's it for today but I reserve the right to add more rules as I see fit. In case you have any suggestions to share about some rules which will help keep this thread tidy and resourceful for others, please don't hesitate to submit them.


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    The thread celebrities (courtesy of AFXFin)

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    I've noticed that in certain times, there was a debate about particular posts made by particular members wherein text from linked content was copied and pasted in line with the post. More specifically, the comments were directed at these members thus spamming the thread and making several articles in succession.

    While I concur that any such consecutive posts look somewhat abusive, I can't agree that they don't fulfill the requirements or that they violate any current rules or guidelines within this thread.

    But I want to point out in the interest of fairness to all, I would prefer to see less successive long postings from any 1 individual. Should you feel a need to make a long post, please allow some time to post their perspectives before making another post that is lengthy. The solution is to keep your posts or if you have much to say on a number of topics please include them all in 1 post.

    I must stress that these are guidelines rather than rules.
    I wish to encourage all to post their views as they see fit and if an external article or news item describes it better than they could, I find no harm in quoting excerpts from any such external links.

    Yet another thing however, which I believe I've made clear in the past and can also be a rule.
    During peak market hours, especially from Europe available to US near, I want to observe all of philosophical, speculative and historic talks kept to a minimum as this is the time for fundamental/technical analysis and transaction calls.

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    Any transaction or analysis related comments made within this thread by myself or any other person should not be interpreted as anything other than a point of view by the respective poster. It is your responsibility for a trader to make a decision as to what advice to use and what to disregard and you do so at your own risk.

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all traders or traders. Before deciding to trade the foreign exchange (Forex) markets, you should carefully consider your own objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. The possibility exists you could sustain a loss of some or all of your funds and you should not speculate with capital which you cannot afford to lose.

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    Structure 1005469
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    Links to Italian bond yields (15 minute delayed) - - - - - - - - - - -

    Links into Spanish bond yields (15 minute delayed) - - - - - - - - - - -

    Links to Greek bond yields (15 minute delayed) - - - - - - - - - - -

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    Don't get trapped in a union you cannot manage.
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    It will save your account and your plogical well being.

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  2. #2
    I've been trading forex for almost 10 years now. Back then it was a completely different market. If you needed a 100 pip move in the EUR at a day, you were lucky. Things were much calmer and the retail forex market was smaller with volume and less liquidity. Thus, fundamental analysis and general market sentiment was more significant than analysis. However, it did not take much effort to be a position trader. All you needed to do was buy euros on every dip and allow them all ride for as long as the fundies and opinion upward. The indiors I used back then were fibonacci tools, a 10ema along with a 144ema.

    Then came 2008 and everything changed. The markets became more absurd, less predictable and more challenging to stay without technical analysis. But that only applies to intraday trading.


    From a position trader's view looking at the very long term, if you examine the monthly Euro chart, I see the formation of a bull flag on its way to finishing wave 5 downwards. My target based on this opinion is around the 1.12 handle making it a 61.8% retrace of the 2000 lows at 0.8225 into the 2008 drops at 1.6019.

    Clearly these moves don't happen in a straight line so let us take a closer look at the same monthly chart. Right now I see that we are sitting on a falling trend line offering comparatively moderate support at around the 1.35 area (where we're now). The monthly candle for September rebounded, has countered this lineup, and is currently challenging it.

    In a purely technical standpoint, assuming this area offers major support, the move further down is not likely to occur until the October candle and from this candle's lows at 1.3383 we ought to expect a rebound of approx 200 to 300 pips upwards to approx 1.3585 into 1.3685 (If we look at smaller time frames we'd be able to more closely narrow down the goals but for the purpose of this post we'll follow the monthly outlook only).

    The above mentioned 200 to 300 pip estimate is based on the monthly rebounds of similar long term trend line penetrations. More specifically the 2008 comprehension of the long term rising trend line along with also the 2010 downward penetration of the newer term rising trend line. (Refer to chart)

    Now, without getting into a lot of specifics, let us add some of their current fundamentals and standard market sentiments into the image. I will offer some reference to a news posts which back up my statements but I am not going to get too in depth here as it would take much too much distance. This is not and merely 1 post an entire thread. LOL

    1. The situation in Europe is all doom and gloom and the politicians don't appear to be doing about it. More and more every day economists are calling for a default that is Greek. Politicians who were in relation to some default are admitting a default gets more potential and more. They don't need a default since they don't know what the outcome would be and how much damage it would impose on the economy. But they are starting to understand that kicking the can down the road just causes more uncertainty in the markets and in corporate customer confidence. This is not good for the economy. Therefore, not any default , the outlook or default is negative.

    2. The growth predictions have once again been corrected downwards. The ECB will finally have no choice but to reverse its rate increase of 0.5% before this season. This move will come at the next ECB council assembly and be reflected in the October rate announcement. The sole question is if it will be 0.25 percent or the entire 0.5%.

    that I think I have said enough for now. I suggest you keep your eyes to the news department and tune in to CNBC and/or Bloomberg to get a better awareness. You don't need an economics degree to figure it out. The writing is on the encourage along with the walls the fundamentals as well as the overall sentiment.

    In conclusion, we should all realize that no one can predict what will occur. We can only make our trade decision based on the information available to us. The best possibility of a transaction is dependent upon each three analysis approaches line up with each other. Confluence of everything like when all of your indiors point to a specific direction. If you ignore the fundamentals, you are not performing a analysis and your odds of loss increase.

    Joyful trading and great green profitable pips to all.


  3. #3
    Interesting, I am curious, what occurs after 1.1? Does the bull flag carry out its potential and rise to 1.8 by approximately 2016?

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    PT intriguing, I am curious, what happens after 1.1? Does the bull flag carry its potential and rise by approximately 2016?
    Hi Aaron. I guess if the time comes, we might have to wait and see. But if it plays out this way, I would say 1.78 by 2015. But that's only a very loose projection assuming the Euro will be because we know it.

  5. #5
    Equities have already loss back it's year's gain. Same with EU, we are back at beginning year's start. In few weeks, EU will tank to 1.28-1.31, and we ought to see some professional support there holding for the rest of the year.

  6. #6
    In the event the Asian markets are gong to set the speed with this particular trading day, it will not look good right now.

    CHART: Nikkei 225

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Yes I know it seems like urinalysis
    adore the approach! Will be fallowing!

  8. #8
    One thing to keep in mind today, even though I am really bearish and anticipating the eur/usd to reach the 1.28/1.29 degree by next week, we all need to be somewhat cautious if price breaks down the low of 1.3383 as it still needs to return to examine the H1 144ema or channel resistance around 1.3650/80 area.

    It might not happen till later in the week but I feel it will occur before it heads. There is major support throughout that 1.3380 degree. I suspect there is lots of demand there.

    If you are scalping, use warning. This is the reason why I am not buying anything and I am selling aggressively weathered peaks.

    Playing it safe.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Love the approach! Will be fallowing!
    Welcome and thank you DizzleFX. Glad to have you. Feel free to give your thoughts. We are here to share and learn.


  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Hi Aaron. I guess we will have to wait and see when the time comes. But if it all plays out that way, I would say 1.78 from 2015. But that is just an extremely loose projection assuming the Euro will still be around as we understand it.
    Strategy to monetary policy would support this. Europeans have firsthand experience with hyperinflation -- guys making the choices lived through it. US hasn't had a fantastic bout of hyperinflation because the civil war. So regardless what the future brings, the Europeans will almost always raise their interest rates faster than the US, lower them slower, run QE later (if at all) and in smaller amounts.

    The Euro could come to abrupt end, but so far I've seen no sign from the individuals of the Eurozone, the politicians of the Eurozone, or even the institutions of the Eurozone they see this as an option. The rhetoric against the Euro, has come from the British and the Americans.

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